148 Exam 2 Guide

Be able to identify examples of the following forms of reasoning:

• Generalization
• Inductive Analogy
• Inference to the Best Explanation
• Causal Explanation

After identifying the reasoning appropriately, be able to answer questions of each of the above that indicate that you know what makes each form of reasoning an example of good reasoning of its kind.  Know the associated vocabulary:

• Sample
• Target Feature
• Target Class
• Representative
• Bias
• Homogeneous vs. Heterogeneous
• Relevant similarity
• Relevant difference
• Deep
• Powerful
• Falsifiable
• Simple
• Modest
• Conservative
• Necessary
• Sufficient
• Correlation/Concomitant Variation

Know how to figure probabilities of chance events:

• Use and correctly apply negation, disjunction,  and conjunction rules to determine correct probabilities
• Properly use Bayes’ Theorem (table method) to figure conditional probability.

Understand the following concepts of Rational Choice Theory:

• Expected Monetary Value
• Expected Overall Value
• Expected Utility
• Maximin strategies
• Maximax strategies
• Diminishing Marginal Value

Identify and understand the following concepts related to fallacies:

• Fallacies of Vagueness (Slippery Slopes, Heap arguments)
• Fallacies of Ambiguity (Equivocation, Semantic versus Syntactic ambiguity, Varieties of definitions)
• Fallacies of Relevance (Ad hominem, Appeal to Authority, Appeal to tradition/popular opinion/emotion)
• Fallacies of Vacuity (Circularity/Question-begging, Self-sealers)